Last week on Substack, book coach Heather Garbo published her mid-year analysis of debut fiction deals — 212 deals reported in Publishers Marketplace between January and June of this year, broken down by agent, agency, publisher, and genre. It’s a fascinating roundup of what’s selling.
And, perhaps, what’s not.
In the lists of genres that are snagging publishing deals — at least in debut fiction — there was one glaring omission: Mystery.
Upmarket fiction dominated, accounting for roughly a third of debut deals. Fantasy, romantasy, horror, thriller, romance — all were present and accounted for, as expected. But in the 2026 Q1 and Q2 debut fiction deals, only six debut deals were in the mystery genre.
An analysis of the genres most frequently submitted to agents in the past 12 months (according to Query Tracker data), showed that mystery wasn’t even in the top 10. Nor was it in the top 10 genres most frequently requested by agents (again, Query Tracker).
If you write mysteries, this is a gut punch. Are debut authors not writing mystery? Is publishing turning away from the genre? This seems odd. People love Only Murders in the Building, and Knives Out. Then again, Netflix canceled The Residence, which was the best mystery series I’d seen in years.
Of course, the UK is still going strong with its mysteries, with titles like the Thursday Murder Club, The Sheep Detectives, and Marlow Murder Club, dominating on screens and in print.
In a response to my question on her article, Garbo wrote: “The Mystery deals in the last 6 months do show a lot of genre-blending: half are humorous and the others include speculative, romantic or historical elements.”
So is this a US readership/viewer issue? Do Americans not have an appetite for justice? That’s a bit of a loaded question, I suppose, given all that’s going on in this country.
I know from my own experience with my agent that selling cozy mysteries to trad publishers has been an uphill battle. Two contemporary series that I’ve pitched have been rejected. And although I had a four-book mystery series with a traditional publisher — every book earned out — the publisher declined more books in that series. Also, despite writing a popular indie series in cozy paranormal mystery, publishers haven’t been interested in foreign, audio, or paperback rights.
What do you think is going on with mystery? Is it a dying genre, enjoyed by only older people? Is this simply cyclical, and we’ll see a shift in the coming years? Are mystery deals largely for seasoned, multi-book authors like Janet Evanovich? Are mystery writers pivoting to thriller or suspense (that was my agent’s advice for my own writing)?
I guess it’s also possible that indies have taken over the cozy/traditional mystery space.
Skipping the Gatekeepers: My Mystery Catalog
Traditional publishers might be cooling on mysteries, but I certainly haven’t. Navigating both traditional publishing and indie publishing has given me a front-row seat to this industry shift—and it’s why I’m so passionate about giving readers some fast-paced, highly fun stories.
If you’re looking for your next favorite cozy mystery fix, you don’t have to wait for a traditional house to greenlight it. You can dive into my worlds right now. All are available on Amazon, and in audiobook. Many are also in paperback/hardcover in various places. IMPORTANT: You can find many of these books in ebook form on your local library app.
